Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Fixing The Lions... Not An Easy Task

While most people envisioned the Detroit Lions missing the playoffs and floating around an 8-8 or 7-9 record, few envisioned them being 4-9 come Week 15. As a fan of my beloved Lions it pains me to say that I hope they lose out these last three weeks. Not because I want to fire a coach but simply because it improves where we draft come April. The playoffs are out of reach so does finishing this season at 7-9 make it any better than 4-12 or 5-11? No, not in the least. This team has so many problems defensively that a high draft pick helps that problem. Let's breakdown our defensive problems:

Defensive Line
Cliff Avril, Willie Young, Lawrence Jackson, Sammie Lee Hill and Corey Williams are all free agents in the offseason. Avril is 26 and in his prime and should flourish with Suh and Fairley becoming dominant but will the Lions pay him the money he can get elsewhere? Remember he turned down a fairly lucrative deal this past offseason. Young and Jackson are both great complimentary players at DE, but neither of them are valued more than Avril. Retaining one or both would be ideal, especially since KVB has been rather quiet on the other end. Williams has become expendable given the play Fairley has shown the last few weeks, however should he decide to take a bit of a decrease both in playing time and pay he'd be a nice fit. Given the fact though that Hill is cheaper he seems more likely to stay.

The depth at defensive end in this year's draft isn't great so I'd be surprised if the Lions drafted one in the first round, they might be better suited to try and hit the market if they lose any or all of our potential free agents. And there's certainly no need to address defensive tackle in the first round.

Linebackers
The Linebacking core of Tulloch, Durant and Levy has been solid for the most part. However, both OLB in Durant and Levy are free agents. Ultimately I could see the Lions re-signing one (Durant) and letting one walk. They drafted two linebackers last year in Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis. If the Lions feel comfortable handing one of them position next year it could leave the Lions with money to address needs on the d-line and in the secondary.

Jarvis Jones would be a blessing to fall to the Lions should he get there, if he doesn't Alabama's C.J. Mosley could be another option. Outside of those two there isn't much first round depth there given the likely hood of top 10, top 12 pick in April. Texas A&M's Demontre Moore could be another candidate, he's been used as DE/OLB rusher. Also Manti Te'o could be a possibility too but he'd have to move to the outside as Tulloch is still a top ten MLB.

Secondary
Chris Houston and Louis Delmas headline the free agents sitting in the Lions secondary pool. Re-signing Houston should be a priority for the Lions but should he decide to test the market, could see more money elsewhere. Delmas is a conundrum, is he worth the risk and the money? There's no question Delmas makes our secondary better when he's on the field, it's just that he's rarely on the field. The biggest concern with Delmas is his knack for being hurt, he played in 15 games each season his first two year, 11 last year and only five so far this year. Addressing the 30 games he played in his first two seasons, Delmas wasn't able to finish nearly a third of those games. I'd be surprised if Drayton Florence or Jacob Lacey return to this team next year. Expect to see two of the three rookies from this year's draft class get extended playing time next year, assuming they stay healthy.

Sadly, the draft isn't plentiful of DBs this year and it lacks that shutdown corner. Should Alabama's Dee Milliner declare for the draft he'd be the top corner in the draft. Other potential but lower first round picks include: Florida State's Xavier Rhodes and Mississippi State's Johnathon Banks. The Lions didn't take a chance on last year's trouble maker in Janoris Jenkins so could they burn a mid round (3-5) pick on this year's, Tyrann Mathieu? Hard to say since he's been out of football for a year and hasn't worked out for anyone yet. Only safety worth an early first round pick this year would be Texas' Kenny Vaccaro, should the Lions trade down Oklahoma's Tony Jefferson and LSU's Eric Reid could be potential picks.

Offense
Gosder Cherilus is the only starting offensive lineman that's a free agent, but could replaced by either Jeff Backus or Riley Reiff. I say this knowing fully the Lions won't draft one, but wide receiver is a concern. You've seen how bad this group looks without Burleson, Broyles and Young. Calvin can't do it all if this team expects to win, Burleson will be back for the start of the year. I'd suspect Broyles would be back by Week 5 and I'd be surprised if the Lions don't trade Titus Young for whatever they can get. Good news is there isn't a standout receiver out there just yet, so no worries on that front. However, if the Lions don't go defensive they could choose to address their offensive line needs of center, right guard and right tackle.

It's hard to speculate what the Lions will do to fill these holes. The team would need to re-work some deals with some key players (Stafford, Suh, Burleson) to try and free up any sort of cap space for next year if they want to hit the market or keep some of their own guys from potentially testing the market. Scott Linehan's job could be in jeopardy while I'd expect Gunther Cunningham and Jim Schwartz to be safe for now.

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